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Most of the economic indicators and the 2nd Estimate of GDP for 1Q2013 have been announced over the past week or so. It is time to update the scorecard on the Change in GDP from 2012.

This Mind Map was developed to help me put things into perspective. All the negative press on 1 or 2 indicators really wreck havoc to Consumer Confidence levels. So, let’s take a look at where we are. ONLY AVAILABLE THRU THIS LINK IN THE RIGHT SIDEBAR————–>>>>

Overall, we see a 50/50 proposition where the trends are positive at least half of the time. When GDP is growing normally, we should see most of the indicators with a Green Flag with a sprinkling of Yellow and Red flags. In this analysis of trends in the economy, we outline the following report card:

  1. The Major Components of GDP, including Consumption, Government Spending, Private Domestic Investment and Net Exports, have split 50/50., 2-Green Flags and 2-Yellow Flags. 
  2. The Nineteen (19) closely-watched indicators have split fairly close to 50/50, 9-Green, 8-Yellow and 2-Red Flags.

You can interpret this to mean that the economy is so-so, growing, but very slowly. But, there are both positive and negative signs where the economy could go either way. A major economic event would tilt the pendulum one way or the other causing a “hot” economy or a major contraction.

We plan to provide monthly updates to this Mind Map, as well as publish a GDP FACT BOOK every quarter. The focus on this quarter is on Consumption and Private Domestic Investment, which account for 70% and 13.3% of GDP respectively. This past week we had posts on Consumption. This coming week we will have posts on Investment. These are the 2 major components of GDP that contracted deeper and longer than at any other time in history since The Great Depression.

Our next post will be taking a look at Consumer Confidence as an indicator of increased spending habits.


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